Climate models do not predict the future.
It's a common experience that if you ask five model providers what your flood risk is at one address, you'll get five different answers. And if you compare their assessments for 30 years from now against what actually happens, you're likely to be disappointed in the results.
No model can predict the future. That doesn't make this process unhelpful. It's just important for you to understand how these models work and what they mean.
At Beehive, we acknowledge the limitations of climate models while valuing their importance in understanding the world around us. So instead of pretending that our models are right and the other guys' are wrong, we lean into two core philosophies: transparency and auditability.
Transparency means that we show you everything about how we build our models. Anyone can read our documentation. Our approach is to take existing best practices - government data sets, published papers on how to build models - and bring them into usable software, with as much transparency as possible.
Auditability means that every data source comes from a credible database you can reference, like FEMA or the EU Joint Research Centre. It means that when we share risk to an asset, we provide the inputs that led us to that estimate, give the customer tools to adjust some of those assumptions, and give customers and auditors tools to follow the logic all the way through. We know that your lived experience in a place or at a building may be different from what a global model says. So you should be able to control that.
So it is our strong opinion that climate models are not good at predicting events. But they are still useful. What is important is that you understand how your model provider reached their conclusions, and that you have the tools to incorporate your own knowledge about the business, so that you can use the information wisely.
